Views from 116: 2018-19 Home Opener

Original Post: October 19, 2018By Eric Marturano

Well, the season is finally underway! Hard to believe we’re here…welcome to Views from 116. In case you forgot, this column is a perspective from the stands for the fans. Let’s get to it.

Sixers vs. Bulls – Thursday, October 18, 2018

Last night was the 2018-2019 season home-opener.

Pregame:

Trying to shake off the stark reality-check from the Celtics on Tuesday, I made my way down to The Center for last night’s tip-off at 8pm – an hour later than usual due to the primetime national TV matchup with the Chicago Bulls (who stink but play in a big market).

My section (116) is right in front of the Care Auto Insurance Bar, so that’s where I tend to enter. The bar is always hoppin’ and even more so when the game tips-off late…but for the home opener? The buzz was nearly PLAYOFF-level and the concourse was super-populated. People clearly bought tickets way ahead of time – it was a far-cry from the home opener two seasons ago when some goofus fan flipped off Russell Westbrook.

Free shirts light up the stadium

The pregame buzz in the stadium in stands was around one player and one player only: Markelle Fultz. I heard comments all over the map – from along the lines of “what’s Fultz’s rope?” to “why can’t he just shoot?” to “they need to play him as many minutes as possible” to the ever-optimistic “listen buddy, we already got a third star.”

Fans in attendance were lucky enough to get some free shirts, which lined the seats.

There was your typical weirdness in pregame, with one ref stretching in a very strange fashion and Sixers Mascot Franklin playing some sort of hangman flipchart game with Robin Lopez while mercilessly taunting the Chicago big man.

Ron Brooks belts out another stellar anthem.

By the time of the anthem, it was a packed house – and the masses were rewarded with Sixers fan-favorite Ron Brooks for the anthem. Meek Mill rang the bell, Embiid addressed the crowd, and Sixers in-arena announcer Matt Cord got some well deserved camera time.

First Quarter:

As soon as Markelle Fultz caught the ball on the 1st possession, everyone in the building was screaming for him to shoot. He was certainly open, but this was a trend throughout the whole quarter anytime Markelle touched the ball -“SHOOOOOOOT IIIITTT!!” I’m very curious to see how much patience our fanbase will have with his development. The Sixers ended the quarter down 38-41.

Other 1st quarter observations:

• Our defense looked good on possessions but somehow gave up 41 points. I’m not sure the Bulls missed.
• The Sixers Stixers drumline put on a nice show halfway through the 1st quarter – drumlines should be at more sporting events.
• I got on a rare 1st quarter Carlton Cam – I’m 1 for 1 on the season.
• As many threes as Robert Covington can miss, I think he almost always hits the 2nd chance three on the same possession – as some say, Cov is always better the second time around.
• The Chick-Fil-A Challenge (make a layup, free throw, and three pointer in 1 min) participant was an able-bodied bro who just couldn’t sniff the basket from three. I mean these shots were EMBARRASSINGLY short. Accordingly, this bum was booed.

  
  “YARRRRGH I GOT YUENGLINGGG”

• ShopRite had a promising “Price is Right” promotion, but the fan contestant lost due to the fact that ShopRite’s price was consistently higher for whatever item the contestant was guessing for. I now believe that all ShopRite prices are too high.
• There’s a pirate man (complete with fake parrot on shoulder and fake pirate voice) who sells beer in my section – I just wanted to share this with you.

Second Quarter:

This was a nice quarter from #OurGuys. JJ Redick had a four-point play, Landry Shamet looked good, and most importantly – the Cov, Fultz, Simmons, Embiid, and Redick lineup got long minutes together. I was intrigued by this lineup possibility when scrolling through the roster, and they seemed to play well together. I’m hoping that the Sixers are able to continue testing out different strategies with Fultz on the floor, particularly against bad teams like the Bulls. The Sixers ended the half up 65-58.

Halftime:

Speed-painter David Garibaldi is all about the Benjamins

The halftime show was a speed painter named David Garibaldi. He’s done Sixers’ games before, but I was surprised to see him at the home opener. He threw on some fun music and speed-painted the Benjamin Franklin Sixers logo in just a few minutes. Speed painting is a solid halftime activity – it’s not super-high energy so you can chat or get up from your seat, but it’s also entertaining enough to hold your interest. I hope one day to develop advanced metrics on professional basketball halftime shows, but for now I’ll settle for the eye-test.

Third Quarter:

Robert Covington found his 3pt stroke this quarter and, let me tell you – when Cov is hitting his threes, the Sixers are gonna win. We also caught a nice stretch of our “old starters” from last year – which happened to be the best 5-man unit in the league! I hope Brett Brown continues to utilize this lineup while also developing talent (read: Fultz) during games against bad teams. The Sixers broke away here, ending the quarter 102-76.

Other 3rd quarter observations:

• There was a hotly contested game of musical chairs, which is really one of the best ongoing break entertainment gags in the stadium. As always, people forget to box out and it costs them!
• When the Sixers play nationally, there are slightly longer TV breaks, which provides ample time to make a speed run to the bathroom. I did this twice during the game and both times didn’t miss any game action. Not all heroes wear capes.
• Throughout the night more than one person in my section was eyeing up #2 on the Bulls wondering who it was…in the third quarter one wondering fan realized loudly it was Jabari Parker, which…well…doesn’t say a whole lot about the state of Jabari Parker’s career.
• Robert Covington is my favorite Sixer, but I recognize he is also a very polarizing Sixer. He sort of reminds me of Asante Samuel in that when he’s good, people notice, but when he’s bad people, seem to notice a lot more. I’m still work-shopping this take, so bear with me.
• Landry Shamet hit a few threes this quarter and I’m very much thinking about doing a SHAM WOW gimmick at some point this season.

Fourth Quarter:

Since the Sixers blew the game open in the 3rd quarter, the final quarter was mostly garbage time. Fultz stepped into a 3 which brought the house down

This fan nailed the Dario dance

and prompted many “FULTZ” claps. Dario not only starred in a fun 76ers Showdown Jumbo-tron dance-off, but found a bit of rhythm on the court from 3, and to top everything off, the Sixers popped the Kork(maz). The only thing that irked me was Embiid staying in the game a bit too long, despite it being very nice to see both him and Simmons get a curtain call with a 30 pointt double-double and a triple double, respectively. All in all, a solid night taking care of business at home against a bad team.

Sixers WIN 127-108. Say it with me: “Fresh water. $1 pretzels.”

Next time I’m in 116, I’ll share some more views. Until then: 1-2-3-4-5-Sixers!

NBA Win Totals: 2018-2019 predictions for every team

Original Post: October 5, 2018
by Eric Marturano

A few years back, one my pals and podcast partner Mike Pizza and I began posting our NBA Win Totals on Twitter. We did this because we pretend to know a whole lot about the league and also because it’s really fun.

However, now that legal sports betting is only a quick drive down the Atlantic City Expressway for me, I can finally put my money where my mouth is. This past weekend, I bet on 26 teams at Bally’s Wild Wild West Sportsbook in Atlantic City. I would have bet on all 30, but four – the Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Phoenix Suns – were pulled from the books for various reasons (Jimmy Butler trade rumors, Russell Westbrook minor surgeries, etc.). While I’m planning on making a trip down next month to get some action on those teams, I still had to set win totals for each of them now, since it was needed for both the benefit of my entire system and also because if I’m doing this thing….well, I’m DOING this thing. If you’re curious about the not-so-complex system I use to set win totals, feel free to @ me on Twitter (@TheEMart).

Without further ado, let’s get to the picks and hopefully make some money. Note that all bets were made at -115, so there were no added benefits to taking one side or another:

Eastern Conference

15. Atlanta Hawks – 19 wins (UNDER 24.5) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: There is no win-total low enough for Trae Young’s shot selection crossed with your best player being Kent Bazemore. Shout out to the still-employed Vince Carter.

14. Orlando Magic – 23 wins (UNDER 30.5) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: Bamba No. 5, Jonathan Issac, and Aaron Gordon might end up being fun to watch, but this directionless team feels prime for trades.

13. Chicago Bulls – 25 wins (UNDER 30.5) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: You can Markkanen da Bulls down for another disappointing year.

12. Cleveland Cavaliers  – 28 wins (UNDER 30.5) – $20 to win $37.39

Tweet-length rationale: How many wins is LeBron worth in 2018? 22 seems low, but here we are. Even though they won 50 games last year, this team will be lucky to get 30 this season.

11. Brooklyn Nets – 30 wins (UNDER 31.5) – $10 to win $18.70

Tweet-length rationale: A who’s who of who the hell is that, the Nets are going nowhere fast.

10. Charlotte Hornets – 33 wins (UNDER 35.5) – $20 to win $37.39

Tweet-length rationale: Predictably stinky, the Hornets have had exactly 36 wins the last 2 years. I think they’ll be a little worse this year.

9. New York Knicks – 34 wins (OVER 29) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: This is a fun team, and I believe in Kevin Knox. If they get anything out of KP, they should bank some wins in the terrible East. I also fully expect to lose this money because James Dolan is involved.

8. Detroit Pistons – 41 wins (OVER 38) – $30 to win $56.09

Tweet-length rationale: The anti-Process, middling bastion of mediocrity should make the 8th by default in a weak East with Dwane Casey at the helm.

7. Milwaukee Bucks – 44 wins (UNDER 48) – $40 to win $74.78

Tweet-length rationale: Too many people love this team to make another leap in a weak East. I’m going the other way – I don’t believe in Giannis or new coach Mike Budenholzer.

6. Miami Heat – 45 wins – BET PULLED BY BOOK

Tweet-length rationale: A well-coached rec league team that plays with pride. Even if they can’t wrangle Jimmy Butler, they’ll be an interesting lower-half playoff team.

5. Washington Wizards – 48 wins (OVER 44.5) – $30 to win $56.09

Tweet-length rationale: This hot-mess of a roster is crazy….so crazy it just might work.

4. Toronto Raptors – 50 wins (UNDER 55) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: Growing pains with a new coach and big question marks surrounding Kawhi’s health, motivation, and fit are my reasons to slam the under here.

3. Indiana Pacers – 53 wins (OVER 47.5) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: Absolutely love the addition of Tyreke Evans to a team that was trending upward under the leadership of Victor Oladipo. I would not want to face this team in the playoffs.

2. Philadelphia 76ers – 57 wins (OVER 54.5) – $20 to win $37.39

Tweet-length rationale: #RunItBackWithUs SZN approaches – with improved Simmons, Embiid, and Fultz leading the charge. Sky’s the limit, baby!

1. Boston Celtics – 59 wins (OVER 58.5) – $10 to win $18.70

Tweet-length rationale: This group of bums should clean up in a weak East. Even I’m excited for Jason Tatum’s second year of being only 19, now with gym-rat Gordan Hayward and sneaky-good Kyrie Irving. Here’s to a locker room implosion!

Western Conference

15. Sacramento Kings – 22 wins (UNDER 26) – $40 to win $74.78

Tweet-length rationale: The Sacramento Kings – where the whole is somehow consistently less than the sum of its parts.

14. Phoenix Suns – 26 wins – BET PULLED BY BOOK

Tweet-length rationale: The Suns will be a fun League Pass team. They’ll also play in the loaded West. If they can land Jimmy Butler without giving up too much, they’ll be intriguing…but for now, they’ll stink.

13. Dallas Mavericks – 33 wins (UNDER 35) – $20 to win $37.39

Tweet-length rationale: Doncic will be fun, but this team will have growing pains in a rough conference. Take the over at your own risk.

12. Los Angeles Clippers – 33 wins (UNDER 37.5) – $40 to win $74.78

Tweet-length rationale: Everyone on this team is either too old, inevitably hurt, or both. Doc Rivers ain’t it. The development of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is about the only thing to be excited about.

11. Memphis Grizzlies – 35 wins (OVER 33.5) – $10 to win $18.70

Tweet-length rationale: This line seems a bit too low for a team led by vets Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, infused with the youth & talent of Jaren Jackson. Barring injury, I think they’ll clean up against the bad teams in the league.

10. New Orleans Pelicans – 41 wins (UNDER 45.5) – $40 to win $74.77

Tweet-length rationale: 45.5 wins is a little high for a team that will likely miss the playoffs in a highly competitive West. Take the under.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves – 42 wins – BET PULLED BY BOOK

Tweet-length rationale: I was low on this team even before the Jimmy Butler trade request because I don’t trust Thibs in the NBA in 2018. Maybe moving him will change things, but I’m not optimistic.

8. Portland Trail Blazers – 45 wins (OVER 42) – $30 to win $56.09

Tweet-length rationale: Rip City benefits from stability – while the rest of the West has changed, they’re about the same team that won 49 in a tough conference last year. More importantly, their cohesion allows them opportunity to steal games from talented but newly formed teams. 45 wins seems right.

7. San Antonio Spurs – 46 wins (OVER 45) – $10 to win $18.70

Tweet-length rationale: In getting nothing out of Kawhi last year, this well-coached team essentially swapped Danny Green for DeMar DeRozan. I think they squeak the over –  the competition is better but so are they.

6. Denver Nuggets – 46 wins (UNDER 47) – $10 to win $18.70

Tweet-length rationale: Jokic is fun, but I don’t see this team out-faring others in the a difficult conference. They might not get anything out of Michael Porter Jr. Also…who is Paul Millsap?

5. Oklahoma City Thunder – 51 wins – BET PULLED BY BOOK

Tweet-length rationale: There is a lot to like about OKC, or “Sixers West” as I like to call them, due to the additions of Nerlens Noel & Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to a team that already employed Jerami Grant. Russ & PG13 are hungry and should compete, even in a loaded West, barring injury.

4. Los Angeles Lakers – 52 wins (OVER 48.5) – $30 to win $56.09

Tweet-length rationale: In my opinion, it is free money to bet that a team with LeBron James on it will win at least 50 games.

3. Houston Rockets – 53 wins (UNDER 55.5) – $20 to win $37.39

Tweet-length rationale: I think they got worse, and their window was last year. Additionally, there is dumpster-fire potential in the locker-room if things with Melo go south. The under feels right.

2. Utah Jazz – 55 wins (OVER 49.5) – $50 to win $93.48

Tweet-length rationale: Barring injury, the Jazz are a mortal lock for winning more than 50 games. Bet accordingly.

1. Golden State Warriors – 61 wins (UNDER 63) – $20 to win $37.39

Tweet-length rationale: This team should never lose. But they do. My guess is the 73 win chase isn’t worth it (and also, it didn’t work out, if you recall). A shade over 60 wins feels right.

So that’s it! Those are my picks. Now all that’s left is for the 2018-2019 season to get underway. Let’s go Sixers, baby!

Positional Storylines: Checking-in with the Eagles after Four Weeks

Original Post: October 2, 2018By Eric Marturano

This summer, while we were reveling in the afterglow of the Eagles’ first ever Super Bowl win, we took a look at some of the positional storylines for the upcoming season. After four weeks, here’s where we are with the 2-2 Philadelphia Eagles:

QB: Thanks Nick, but Carson Wentz is back.

After holding down the fort adequately for two weeks, Nick Foles took a seat in Week 3 and Carson Wentz took over vs. the Colts. Wentz shook off the rust and escaped the Colts game with a win despite 2 turnovers. Against the Titans in Week 4, Wentz was still shaking off some rust but looked better – largely thanks to the return of stud wideout Alshon Jeffery. Although he has yet to return to his dominant self, QB is clearly Wentz’s job to lose – although it is nice to know in the event of an injury that evidence exists that Nick Foles can have success with a healthy WR corp. Each QB is 1-1 through Week 4.

RB: Inconsistency limits an at-times promising squad

The law-firm of Ajayi, Clement, Sproles, and Smallwood have had flashes of brilliance but have yet to dominate. Separately, nobody has really stood out – Jay Ajayi is nowhere near his extremely productive 5.8 yards/carry last year, Clement and Smallwood have been explosive at times but have had trouble holding onto the ball, and Sproles is unfortunately injured again. My hope is that this unit finds some consistency in the coming weeks.

WR/TE: This unit goes where a healthy Jeffery takes them

After lackluster performances in the first three weeks of the season, the receiving corp took on new life with Alshon Jeffery in the fold during Week 4’s tilt with Tennessee. As the clear number one option, Jeffery’s size and speed opens up the rest of the field for Ertz, Agholor, and everyone else. Although the game resulted in a loss, a healthy Jeffery bodes well for the success of this unit as Carson Wentz rounds back into form.

OL: Jason Peters’ health woes continue

While Jason Peters hasn’t missed a game in its entirety, he’s been on-and-off the field a lot these past four weeks and something is clearly affecting him. While the rest of the unit maintains, Peters may have to sit and get healthy from whatever injuries are hampering him while Halapoulivaati Vaitai or Jordan Mailata step in for more stable reps. It’s understandable that the veteran and locker room leader wants to be in the fold in the title defense run after missing all of last year, but we may be at the point where it’s hurting both him and the team. Time will tell – hopefully we see Jason Peters hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end of this season.

DL: The best ability is reliability

The Eagles’ pass rush and run defense has been consistently strong and their saving grace on a defense that is struggling to cover the pass in the secondary. As hoped, Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata have been excellent support for an already dominant group of Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Chris Long, and Derek Barnett.

LB: Stay healthy, stay strong

Bradham and Hicks have been solid against the run, although pass coverage in general has been a weak spot for the Eagles. If they can remain healthy, this unit should continue to succeed in supporting the efforts of a dominant defensive line and a struggling secondary.

DB: Where’s the coverage?

As if Week 2’s exposition against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wasn’t bad enough, Week 4 against the Titans was horrendous. Something needs to change with this unit and fast – whether that’s personnel, strategy, or overall execution is up to the wisdom of defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Missed tackles and blown coverage by Jalen Mills, Ronald Darby, Malcolm Jenkins, Corey Graham, and Sidney Jones have marked many of the low-lights of the first few weeks.

Special Teams: Aussie RULES

P Cameron Johnston has been fantastic, currently averaging 51.5 yards/punt and consistently bailing the Eagles out of tight spots when the offense sputters. Any concern in losing the beloved Donnie Jones has been assuaged.

“It’s the whole team.”
As the season moves forward, I can’t help but think back on Jason Kelce’s emphatic statement that a championship run takes “the whole team”. That means each one of these positions, some of which are struggling more than others, matters. The most pressing issue for the Eagles early on is their secondary – if they can’t figure that out, then they’ll be hard pressed to repeat the success of last season.

Testing the “3 Field Goal Theory”

Original Post: August 10, 2018by Eric Marturano

I’m not sure when it started, but it was definitely under Andy Reid.

The Eagles lost 16-17…or maybe it was 23-24. It probably wasn’t 9-10…but who knows, it could have been that too. Anyway, they lost and they kicked 3 field goals – that much I do know. I know this because I remember sarcastically lamenting to my Dad, “Hey, well at least we got down the field 3 whole times and have 9 to show for it!” during what was surely a losing effort. Since that undefined moment in time, “The 3 Field Goal Theory” was born.

Nowadays, my family and friends will text me when there is “3 Field Goal Game” in play. It feels like these games are (almost) always losses for the team with 3 Field Goals. Could there be something to this “3 Field Goal Theory?”

Before going any further, I should probably explain in more detail – “The 3 Field Goal Theory” can be described as follows:

“If you kick 3 field goals, you’re probably gonna lose”.

This theory rests on the following, semi-related premises:

1. Kicking field goals is often the result of stalled drives.
2. If you’ve kicked 3 field goals, you’ve probably stalled too many drives that were otherwise prime scoring opportunities – and in a 60 minute game where sustained drives can sometimes last up to 10 minutes, this can be the kiss of death.
3. If you converted all 3 of your field goal attempts (and thus have 9 points to show for it), you remain vulnerable to coming out down 1 point from that advantage in just two opposing scoring drives (TD + extra point + field goal = 10 points…which is 1 more than 9; the power of math, I know). Anybody who has ever settled for multiple field goals in a game of Madden (couldn’t be me!) knows this all too well.

So after years of having this goofy “3 Field Goal Theory” in my life, I wanted to know…does this theory, born out of the frustration that could only be induced by one Andy Reid, actually hold up against any sort of objective test?

As I quickly found out in my research, this is not an easy question to answer, at least with publicly available data. Not having the capital (or the trust, quite frankly) to pay for football data sets others may have compiled, I decided to take a few different routes in pursuit of some semblance of an answer. What follows is a journal of nerdy madness – please keep all hands and protractors inside the vehicle at all times as we proceed through the unhinged thought processes that occurred as I investigated this theory. If you black out halfway through, feel free to skip to the end; I won’t be entirely offended:

• First, I started with running a simple correlation between wins and field goal attempts per game from the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons (n=96; 3 seasons of 32 teams). I found it funny that in 2017, Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs led the league in field goal attempts per game with nearly 3 (2.81 to be exact). Who better than Father Time himself to give me hope that I was onto something? (Data was pulled from our good friends over at ESPN.com)
• The correlation between wins and field goal attempts per game from these 3 years was a weak positive correlation (0.31), suggesting that 3 field goal attempts isn’t indicative in-and-of-itself towards losing a game. In fact, kicking three field goals seems to actually help, if only a little bit. This makes sense intuitively: more points is always better, and 3 points is better than the 0 points you didn’t have a moment ago. It should come as no surprise that more points generally means a higher likelihood of winning. To quote one of my high school defensive coordinators – “If they don’t score, they don’t win.”
• However, mere correlations don’t factor in the situation, or opportunity cost, of kicking a field goal – a key element to the “3 Field Goal Theory.” Touchdowns are worth more than twice as much as field goals (after accounting for the extra point), and there are limited chances to get them throughout a game. Through this lens, every field goal kicked potentially represents 4 (or 5) points left on the board. In other words, a gain of 3 points is nice…but a gain of 7 (or 8) is much nicer. Each possession not ending in a touchdown, thus, leaves the team that is failing to reach paydirt further and further exposed to their opponent as the clock marches towards 0:00.
• Brainstorming ways that I could begin to test this notion, I next attempted to manually construct a data set that would allow me to incrementally examine the potentially diminishing returns of kicking 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5+ field goals during the course of a game. I believe there must be a point of diminishing returns for attempting field goals, and I have a hunch that it’s around 3. After all, if an opponent plays its cards right, it can make up the 15 points from 5 made field goals in just two trips down the field. There is a reason teams don’t kick field goals until 4th down.
• Unfortunately, as I combed through and began to assemble various online data by-hand to answer this unorthodox question, I realized it would be a data set that would take multiple months to construct the right way. I’m impatient, so I elected to shift instead to general regression analysis regarding field goal attempts per game and their relationship with Wins.
• To build this dataset, I scraped two websites for 2015-2016 NFL regular season data: NFLSavant.com and ESPN.com. NFLSavant.com provided me with 2015 and 2016 season play-by-play data and ESPN.com was able to give me 2015 and 2016 final regular season standings, team offense, defense, and kicking data. This data was then copied, pasted, and formatted into columns in Microsoft Excel.
• Next, I further formatted the data that I had gathered from the web by using the pivot table feature in Microsoft Excel to more easily manipulate the data. My end result was an Excel database of two seasons worth of NFL play-by-play data that was ready for regression analysis.
• I used the correlation and regression analyses features in JMP Pro 13 (a very useful tool for those looking to dabble!) to quickly analyze my data. In total, 64 unique data points (32 teams x 2 years) were assessed.
• After loading my data into JMP, I ran multivariate correlations of each variable on others, looking for relevant correlations with wins.
  • One thing that shocked me was how little correlation any of these metrics had with Wins, let alone my metric of interest (FGA; 0.0634). It wasn’t like I skimped on metrics either – take a look at how expansive just this small section of my correlation table was. I checked everything from well known metrics to more detailed ones. The unique team dynamics of football are on full display here – no one aspect of the game is too heavily responsible for a win:

    
    

    The joys of JMP Pro 13

  • The measures that were most correlated with Wins were OFFPTS (Offensive Points…shocker, I know), XPM (Extra Points Made, which essentially serves as a proxy for touchdowns), and %4thIsRush (meaning the % of 4th down plays that are running plays). While these metrics were the most correlated with Wins, they only fell into the “weak positive” 0.25 to 0.37 range.
    • Another minor observation came from this analysis: when I compared tendencies of how playoff/non-playoff teams behave on a down-by-down basis, I found that they behave essentially identical, except for 4th down – where I found that teams that made the playoff teams were 5% more likely to run on 4th down than pass.
  • Finally, I was ready to explore the relationship between FGA and Wins using regression analyses. After much trial and error, I settled on the following 5 models, which collectively paint a similar picture:
    • Model 1 (Adj. R^2 = 0.22; FGA p=0.0545):
      Win = 14.149 + 0.125 FGA + 0.278 XPA – 0.004 OFFYDS
    • Model 2 (Adj. R^2 = 0.25; FGA p=0.0962):
      Win = 12.465 + 0.106 FGA + 0.258 XPA – 0.003 OFFYDS + 4.809 %4thIsRush
    • Model 3 (Adj. R^2 = 0.26; FGM p=0.0253):
      Win = 14.704 + 0.152 FGM + 0.275 XPM – 0.003 OFFYDS
    • Model 4 (Adj. R^2 = 0.29; FGM p=0.0380):
      Win = 13.019 + 0.138 FGM + 0.267 XPM – 0.004 OFFYDS + 4.866 %4thIsRush
    • Model 5 (Adj. R^2 = 0.21; FGA p=0.0676):
      Win = 13.940 + 1.89 FGA/G + 4.17 XPA/G – 0.05 OFFYDS/G
  • Not surprisingly, in the models above, Wins were better explained by FGM and XPM (made attempts) than FGA and XPA (attempts, regardless of make or miss). Again, having points is better than not having them.
  • It should also come as no surprise that each regression model also showed that an Extra-Point Attempt (XPA) is worth a little more than 2 FGAs (2.1), all things equal.
  • So what do those equations mean in English? I’ll use Model 5 as an example, which would translate to this finding:
    “We can reasonably expect each additional FGA per Game to result in an additional 1.89 Wins on the season.”
    • Note: Models 1-4 need to be interpreted at the season total level (i.e., for Model 3, each additional FGM results in 0.152 more wins on the season). It’s also important to remember regular season wins are capped at 16.
• Some more findings:
  • In most of my models, FGA hovered right around the 5% level, with Model 2 being the highest at p=0.0962 (i.e., significant at the 90% confidence interval) and Model 1 being the lowest at p=0.0545 (i.e., significant at about the 95% confidence interval). I took this to mean there was a weak impact of FGA on Wins, especially since my Adj. R^2 were fairly low for each model.
  • I found that including some form of OFFYDS helped control for a team’s ability to move the ball. Oddly enough, my coefficients for any iteration of this these were very, very small negative numbers. This further indicated to me that I should view OFFYDS as simply a way to remove or “hold out” a team’s ability to move the ball from the regression analysis.
    • Moreover, according to one of my “3 Field Goal Theory” premises, this finding provides some evidence that the disadvantageous point value of 9 (3 field goals) might carry more relative weight than the drawback of settling for a field goal on a stalled drive. While further study is needed, I found it to be an interesting finding even in a general analysis.
  • Another thing to note was the choice to include the %4thIsRush variable and its large coefficient of about 4.8 in Models 2 and 4. The interpretation here is that for every 1% increase in 4th down rushing tendencies, a team can expect 0.048 more wins. That means that about a 20% change in 4th down strategy should account for 1 extra win per season. I’m not sure this would exactly hold in reality, but it provides food for thought and future studies regarding run/pass tendencies in certain situations. Coaches who like to gamble on 4th down – like our very own Doug Pederson – would probably be pleased to know this sort of thing.
  • The overarching result of these regressions is that FGA has a fairly weak impact on a team’s likelihood to win.
    • Unfortunately, none of my models had an Adj. R^2 above 0.30 (which isn’t great to begin with). Given the right data set and the ability to bucket the data into my aforementioned categories of field goal attempt interest, perhaps I would have found something a bit more clear.
    • Regardless, the results of this general inquiry imply that the number of FGAs has little impact on if a team wins or not.

Are you still with me? Or did you black out from the joys of analysis? I hope you found that as fun as I did!

I’ll let my final word on “The 3 Field Goal Theory” be this: It was a theory that was born out of frustration with Andy Reid’s pace of play and is a theory that is a lot of fun to follow live, if only for the jokes when your friend’s favorite team attempts that 3rd field goal. The results of my various tests are inconclusive to me – there is some evidence both for and against this theory becoming a law. While this all began with Andy Reid, perhaps another Eagles coach – Doug Pederson – provided me with some even more compelling data to chew on: The Eagles won the Super Bowl on February 4th, 2018. Jake Elliot was 3/3 on Field Goals Attempts. Stephen Gostkowski? Well, he was only 2/3 that day. I guess when both teams have 3 Field Goal Attempts, the one that makes them wins. It also helps to have a quarterback that can catch – I’ll let you know if I find any more data on that topic some other time. Until then, enjoy the “The 3 Field Goal Theory” and feel free to argue with me on Twitter (@TheEMart) about it anytime a 3 Field Goal Game is in play. Go Birds.

Positional storylines: How do you follow the best Super Bowl run ever?

Originally Posted: July 9, 2018by Eric Marturano

On February 4, 2018, the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl. They beat the New England Patriots 41-33 in one of the greatest games ever played, doing so with backup quarterback Nick Foles at the helm. Several records were set during Super Bowl LII, including most yards gained in an NFL game by both teams combined (1,151 in total), the fewest punts from both teams in a Super Bowl (only 1), and the most points scored in a Super Bowl by the losing team (33). Culminating in the first NFL championship since 1960 and first ever Super Bowl win, the 2017-2018 Super Bowl run will go down as one of the best and most memorable runs in league history.

The question the team asks itself is one that is on the minds of many fans these days…how do you follow THAT?

How do you follow a 13-3 regular season with a +162 Points For/Points Against differential (good for 1st in the league, alongside the inferior New England Patriots who also finished the season at 13-3 and +162)?

How do you follow a 38-7 thrashing of a Vikings team that was, until then, widely considered the best defense in the league?

How do you follow this sequence??:

FOLES: “You want Philly Philly?”
*dramatic pause, knowing look, head nod*
PEDERSON: “Yea, let’s do it”

 This is uncharted territory for all of us. While I can’t predict exactly what lies ahead, here are some educated guesses on some of the storylines that will drive the Eagles – for better, or worse – this season at each position:

QB: Carson Wentz, the Comeback Kid….or Nick Foles, Football Rocky?Front and center this season will be the dynamic between QB Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to their first ever Super Bowl win, and QB Carson Wentz, who very well could have won MVP last season had he not gone down against the Rams in Week 14. Wentz is widely considered the more talented player and the future of the franchise. However, if he isn’t able to start the season and Foles is able to sustain the incredible success he had in the playoffs, Doug Pederson might find himself in a bit of a bind when deciding how to eventually shift the team back into Wentz’s hands. On the flip side, if Wentz struggles early on, how will the team and city respond knowing they have a Super Bowl MVP from just one season ago sitting on the bench? I would be more worried about this, but given the collective strength of character and leadership of Pederson, Wentz, and Foles, I’m confident they’ll be able to navigate the challenges of the QB position this season.

RB: Ajayi, Clement, and the Return of Darren Sproles

The Eagles lost their leading rusher in the departure of LeGarrette Blount but will arguably be even stronger, providing the lion’s share of the rushing attempts to Jay Ajayiwho averaged a very productive5.8 yards/carry on 70 attempts after being traded to the Eagles last season. At 25 years old, look for a breakout season from Ajayi. Corey Clement also came on strong as a change of pace from the bruising Ajayi/Blount and looks to continue to be a great 2nd option. Perhaps most exciting, though, is the return of Darren Sproles. At age 35 and coming back from both a torn ACL and a fractured right arm, the 5’6″ speedster adds another dimension to Pederson’s offense.

WR/TE: Jeffery, Ertz, Agholor, and…?
A huge storyline from last season was the improvement of WR Nelson Agholor. After a lackluster 2016, Agholor was a key piece of the passing attack in 2017, dropping less balls and leading the team in yards-after-the-catch. TE Zach Ertz (Pro Bowl) and WR Alshon Jeffery had great seasons as well and the trio of Jeffery, Ertz, and Agholor combined for 25 of the Eagles’ 38 receiving TDs (9, 8 , and 8, respectively). After losing TE Trey Burton (5 TDs in 2017) to a lucrative deal with the Chicago Bears and WR Torrey Smith (2 TDs), the Eagles look to 2nd round pick TE Dallas Goedert and WR Mike Wallace to pick up the slack. Look for RBs Clement and Sproles to contribute as threats in the passing game as well.

OL: Our Boys are Back in TownWhile C Jason Kelce holds the lasting image and final word for our 2017-2018 Eagles offensive line, the whole unit was one of the best in league last year and should return at full-strength. Most importantly, veteran and locker room leader LT Jason Peters will be back in the fold, hungry for a title he missed out on, taking the place of Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who provided solid depth in his absence. Pro Bowlers RG Brandon Brooks and RT Lane Johnson return as well, ready to crack some skulls. LG Stefen Wisniewski had an ankle injury in the Super Bowl, but should be back to full strength by the start of training camp. LG Chance Warmack will continue to provide depth for the unit as well.

DL: The Rich get RicherOne of the biggest reasons the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year was their killer defensive front. Between the return of Super Bowl heroes Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett and consistent stalwarts Fletcher Cox (Pro Bowl), Chris Long, and Timmy Jernigan, the Eagles were already poised for success. Now add in longtime greats Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata, and this front is absolutely stacked. While new Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vinny Curry and Beau Allen will be missed, the Eagles will continue to dominate on the defensive front.

LB: The return of Jordan Hicks, the loss of Mychal Kendricks, the steadiness of Nigel BradhamLinebacker is one of the only positions of concern for the Eagles entering this season, as Jordan Hicks hasn’t been the most reliable in terms of health, and the team is missing key contributor Mychal Kendricks. However, Nigel Bradham should continue to be a force, and if Hicks can stay healthy, this unit should be fine. Adding the quick Corey Nelson should help, but one injury to this unit could cause some real trouble for the Eagles’ defense.

DB: Malcolm Jenkins looks to lead a talented, competitive groupPro Bowl strong safety and Philadelphia socialite Malcolm Jenkins and free safety Rodney McLeod provide a reliable backbone for an interesting group of corners: Jalen Mills struggled at times during the season but performed well in the playoffs, Ronald Darby will be in a contract year, and Sidney Jones is looking to prove himself after missing most of last year with an Achilles injury. The Eagles also drafted Avonte Maddox and will have Rasul Douglas vying for time. I’m intrigued to see how this group shakes out in training camp and the early stages of the season, as each player has some ups and down.

Special Teams: The Loss of Donnie JonesWhile the Eagles will be thrilled to have Darren Sproles returning kicks again, losing longtime punter Donnie Jones presents an odd challenge for an otherwise strong special teams unit. Currently, the punter looks to be Australian footballer Cameron Johnston. While the Eagles have expressed confidence in Johnston, he will have a beloved boot to fill in Jones.

“Hungry dogs run faster”
The hunger of otherwise key contributors who were in some ways “left out” of last season’s ultimate Super Bowl run (Wentz, Peters, Hicks, Sproles, etc.) is what I will be watching closely as a key indicator of where the team heads this season. As Jason Kelce so eloquently and bombastically put it, “Hungry dogs run faster”  – and hunger will need to be the focus of the Eagles as they look to defend the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl win.

Views from 116: “Processing” Off-the-court Ticketing Strategies

Originally Posted: July 5, 2018
by Eric Marturano

Believe it or not, “The Process” hasn’t only happened on the court these last few years in Philadelphia: the Sixers are also revolutionizing the sports ticketing market by leveraging analytics off the court to grow and retain their season ticket base. This past March, Braden Moore, Director of Analytics & Insights for the 76ers and New Jersey Devils, spoke about it at the 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The process through which CEO Scott O’Neil has been able to efficiently separate the good people of the Delaware Valley from their wallets is actually quite fascinating.

In 2013, when Braden began his role as Director of Analytics & Insights with the Philadelphia 76ers, there were many challenges. Chief among them were a customer base of only ~3,500 season ticket members and extremely disorganized business data. Like the team on the court around that time, Braden and the rest of team made it their mission to use data to inform how to make the best possible off the court decisions moving forward. The results they’ve seen since taking on this data-driven mindset on the business side have been promising: in 2015, 2016, and 2017, the Sixers led the league in new full season-ticket member sales. They’ve also consistently placed in the Top 10 across the league for renewal rates. These two patterns combined took the Sixers from 28th in 2013 in the NBA for Total Member Base all the way to 2nd in 2017. This past season, the Sixers ranked 3rd in attendance. Braden attributes this success not only to a data-driven mindset, but a true “dialogue” about how to use the data for real takeaways and actionable results. In practice, he outlines this process as a cycle of proper data collection and integration, improved models, and sales rep adoption/buy-in.

Data Warehouses and Data Arenas

76ers Data Collection, Analysis, and Utilization Process (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

The powerful data collection and integration systems offered by Kraft Analytic Group (KAGR) data warehousing allows the Sixers analytics team to focus their brain-power exclusively on improving their quantitative models and outputs. Additionally, the team engages in a qualitative dialogue to help sales reps better understand the “why” behind the direction they receive from the team. These discussions also help sanity check the feasibility of proposed strategies. Because the analytics team relies on the reps to accurately input countless bits of customer information into their Customer Relationship Management (CRM) tool, Braden and team find it crucial to data integrity for the reps to fully understand their key role in the process at-large. In this cyclical model, better data breeds better tools and models, which in turn breeds improved efficiencies for the reps and better rep data collection.

Particularly important to this cycle has been the Sixers analytics teams’ close partnership with KAGR data warehousing. Every piece of customer information that is collected flows through the KAGR data warehousing and to the Sixers analytics team and then back to the reps, completing a 360 degree view of the customer and constantly improved account service. For example, there is a workflow notification to the reps that is triggered when a season ticket member misses three games in a row which notifies the reps to call and find out why and how they can help (i.e., sell tickets to missed games to the season ticket member can either recoup losses or gain a profit). Because I go to nearly every game, I’ve never had to worry about such call, but I’ve certainly seen this data put to use in other ways from the season-ticket holding side (court access, birthday/anniversary gifts, deals I might be interested in, etc.). All of these actions are taken with the goal of increasing my likelihood to renew my season tickets and it starts with data analysis.

Retention is the name of the game

76ers & KAGR Workflow (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

Regarding season ticket member retention in the aggregate, this framework can be quite powerful towards enabling responsiveness from the organization. Using relative importance output logistic regressions from their large data sets, the Sixers were able to identify key variables and metrics that the reps could put into action on either passively (i.e., how many games that members go to) or actively (i.e., how many times the rep calls, emails, or in-game visits their member). This is strategically important for the organization because it takes all typically confusing logistic regression jargon, equations, and quantitative speak and boils it down to actionable behavior for the sales rep. Rather than merely writing a recipe for success, the Sixers actually teach their employees how to cook the meal.

Factors Contributing to Season Ticket Member Retention (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

In a short example, to address a season ticket holder like Greg, who is attending 33% of games, if a sales rep knows they only need to convince Greg to attend 41% of games (in reality, just 2-3 more) in order to drastically increase his renewal likelihood (from 60% likelihood to renew at 33% attendance to 81% likelihood to renew at 41% attendance), then they will be properly motivated to follow-up with Greg on no-cost perks (such as on-court pregame pictures for a game that is happening anyway).

Turning insights into actions for “Greg” (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

In this way, the rep is able to utilize data insights to meet or exceed their sales goals. The Sixers’ analytics team is able to track this information housed by KAGR over time and create interfaces for their reps to easily monitor ticket members that they’re responsible for on quick-click dashboards.

Season ticket monitoring by seat (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

The analytics team also uses data on the reps logging behavior themselves to motivate them to maintain data integrity. On the first day of hiring, reps shown that told they can increase the number of sales (wins) they have by up to 30% by logging information correctly. More clean data means more money for the rep’s pocket, more money for the organization, and more satisfied ticket holder. Everybody wins.

Reinforcing the “So What”

Motivational strategy for sales reps (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

This data-driven mindset off the court has created incredible results for the Sixers organization. As they move forward and build off of this data into models that are currently in development (i.e., customer decision journey models), they’re well positioned to continue to generate and retain season ticket sales. Throughout the dregs of “The Process”, the Sixers had a saying of being “50-win ready” around the organization and believe that this model will help them sustain organizational success off the court as the team on the court continues to improve. After a 52-30 finish to the 2017-2018 season and first round playoff series win, the Sixers will look to meet the challenges of growing expectations and increased ticket demands – great problems to have if properly prepared.

Eric Marturano is a Sixers season ticket holder who works in market research analytics. Eric has attended the last four MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conferences.