by Eric Marturano
An actual 82 game NBA season is only about a month away, and that means it’s time to place some futures bets! As my lone longtime reader may recall, I've done this column a few times before, but because of COVID wrecking the 2019-20 & 2020-21 seasons from an over/under perspective, I've taken a break.
Well, we're BACK BABY!!
As a reminder, this game of trying to predict win totals started a few years back between my pal Mike Pizza and
myself. Sometimes I’m dead on and other times I’m way off. Bet with (or against) me at your own risk!
Two additional notes before we get started:
- This
year I placed my bets at FanDuel. In the world of online gambling, I’d advise anyone considering
future bets to shop around – you can usually find a price that best
suits your belief. Although I found it easier to keep them all in one place this time, I usually advise shopping.
- For
simplicity, bets are explained in units. The bigger the bet, the
bigger my belief is that it will hit. So, take a 5 unit bet as one I really, really believe and a 1 unit bet as one I'm sort of on the fence about.
Amateur tip: If you’re considering sports betting, decide what your “units” are before laying any money down. Pro tip: If you’re considering sports betting, be prepared to never see any of that money again.
Without further ado, let’s get to my picks for the upcoming NBA season!
Eastern Conference
15. Orlando Magic – 22 wins (OVER 21.5, -110 ) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: This Magic team is gonna stink, big, but 22 wins is still 60 losses. With the amount of resting and smoothing of the tanking odds, it's hard to bet under 20 games for any team that isn't the Thunder. Slight over.
14. Detroit Pistons – 28 wins (OVER 23.5, -122) - 4 Units ****
Tweet-length rationale: Cade Cunningham is fun, Jerami Grant cares, and this team won't be actively tanking (although they won't be good). They're not winning 30 games but should definitely win more than 23.5!
13. Cleveland Cavaliers – 30 wins (OVER 27.5, -115) - 2 Units **
Tweet-length rationale: All kinds of trade rumors with this Cavs team, but you know what? It's pretty simple to me: a team anchored by Jarrett Allen ain't losing 52+ games. I also like the Markkanen addition.
12. Washington Wizards – 32 wins (under 34.5, +100) - 2 Units **
Tweet-length rationale: I don't get the Wizards. Beal remains everyone’s favorite trade rumor. Dinwiddie ain't try-hard Westbrook. Hachimura & Avdija don't seem ready yet. The former Lakers flotsam of Kuzma, KCP, & Harrell seem ripe to underachieve. This feels like a bad start/trade request. Under, please.
11. Toronto Raptors - 33 wins (under 36.5, -115) - 3 Units ***
Tweet-length rationale: This line moved from 37.5 to 36.5 as I was writing this, so I know that's a good sign for the under here. Toronto has some moves to make and probably won't be in the mix this first year post-Lowry.
10. Charlotte Hornets - 35 wins (under 37.5, -105) - 2 Units **
Tweet-length rationale: They
have some young talent and half-decent vets, but this team isn't going
anywhere. I'd give LaMelo Ball another season before they're over the 40 win
mark.
9. Chicago Bulls – 41 wins (under 42.5, +100) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: This line is good. The Bulls improved with win-now players like DeRozan & Ball on the roster and should be a fringe-playoff team. Yet, I don't see them getting above .500? I like the value of the under (+100) vs. the over (-122). I'm betting new faces don't mean wins right away.
8. Boston C*ltics - 44 wins (under 45.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: I just watched Ime Udoka coach Josh Richardson and Al Horford in a disappointing Philly "bubble" campaign (2019-20) with a better roster than this Boston squad. What am I missing here? I'm on the fence, so give me the slight under since Boston is the worst place on earth.
7. New York Knicks – 46 wins (OVER 41.5, -110) - 4 Units ****
Tweet-length rationale: Kemba in NYC? A Knicks team coming off of a meaningful playoff appearance? Thibs, AKA "The Penguin," and his penchant for winning regular season games. All signs point to over!
6. Indiana Pacers – 47 wins (OVER 42.5, -110) - 4 Units ****
Tweet-length rationale: This line moved from 41.5 to 42.5 as I was writing this, so I know I'm on the right track. This Pacers team is looking to bounce back and have enough depth and cohesion to do it. Definitely a playoff team and in a now strong & competitive East; that means regular season wins.
5. Atlanta Hawks – 48 wins (OVER 46.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: I sure do hate the Hawks and how they wrecked Ben Simmons, but last season felt like Trae Young's big coming-out party. I'd expect Atlanta to continue to win games in a competitive East...but maybe not make a deep playoff run again.
4. Miami Heat – 49 wins (OVER 48.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: Swapping Lowry in for Dragic is definitely an upgrade to a Jimmy Butler-led squad that made a Finals run in the "bubble." They have a high line here but I can't see them being less than a 4-seed in the East, regardless of how you feel about the teams I put ahead of or near them.
3. Philadelphia 76ers – 52 wins (OVER 51.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: Regardless of how the Simmons situation resolves, a team led by Embiid isn't winning under 50 games. I'd expect Embiid to play more to remain in the top 4 seed races for the East. Give me a slight over, especially since this former 1-seed may improve with a savvy trade. Go Sixers.
2. Milwaukee Bucks – 53 wins (under 55.5, -115) - 2 Units **
Tweet-length rationale: The defending champs will have their eyes focused on the playoffs and making it there healthy. They used to play the win-as-many-as-you-can regular season game...and last year they stopped that fool's gold and won the title. Expect the same logic here, even though they're talented.
1. Brooklyn Nets – 55 wins (under 56.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: The Nets can definitely talk themselves into being the champs of last season if not for injury. They've only added veteran depth but will still have their eyes on Durant/Harden/Irving health and season pacing. They'll pile up wins, but I still lean under here for that reason. Priority #1 is get to the playoffs healthy.
Western Conference
15. Oklahoma City Thunder – 20 wins (under 21.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: Sam "I'm doing the same thing as Hinkie but with no bad press" Presti will continue to treat this team as an asset sheet vs. a contender this season, so it's hard to imagine them winning games. I'll bite on the under here because something as low as 15 wins in play.
14. Houston Rockets – 26 wins (under 27.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: There's maybe some hope that Christian Wood & Co. get to 28 wins, but I'm willing to bet the other way. The Rockets also seem prime for a trade, if only to continue to save Tilman Fertitta money.
13. San Antonio Spurs – 28 wins (under 29.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: After losing DeRozan, this already bad team got worse. I don't see 30+ wins for them. Do you? Maybe if they pull off a Ben Simmons trade...but unlikely.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves – 32 wins (under 33.5, -105) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: I don't believe in this team, even if they trade for Ben Simmons. 32-50 seems right, which is pretty close to the 33.5 line. They'll probably win 34 games just to spite this pick. Oh well!
11. Sacramento Kings – 36 wins (OVER 35.5, -122) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: Every year the Kings' parts are always greater than their sum and this roster is no different. The line of 35.5 couldn't be better, but give me a slight over because of my guy Richaun Holmes.
10. New Orleans Pelicans – 36 wins (under 38.5, -110) - 2 Units **
Tweet-length rationale: Feels like this line is a bit high because people like to bet on Zion. Who exactly is winning this team games? I'd stray even lower than 36, but hey, I like to bet on Zion, too. 2 units on the under feels right.
9. Portland Trail Blazers – 39 wins (under 44.5, -110) - 5 Units *****
Tweet-length rationale: I am willing a Dame-to-Sixers trade into existence and this is part of it. The path: the off-season roster moves aren't enough, the Blazers start poorly, Dame asks out and whatever the trade is makes for a sub- .500 team. Even without a trade, I don't like this team for 45+ wins. Easy under, in my opinion.
8. Memphis Grizzlies – 42 wins (OVER 40.5, -122) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: The Grizz feel like they're headed for the playoffs and just over .500 seems right to me. Lots of young talent and boy do I love to root for Ja. Sprinkle the over.
7. Denver Nuggets – 43 wins (under 47.5, -115) - 4 Units ****
Tweet-length rationale: Sans Jamal Murray (whose ACL injury recovery timeline is sort of up in the air), the Jokic Nuggets are a good but not great team. I realize they won 47 games last year and the line is 47.5 with 10 more games on the calendar, but they also had Murray for most of last season. It's unclear if he will even come back in a down year, so the under seems much more likely.
6. Golden State Warriors – 45 wins (under 47.5, -104) - 2 Units **
Tweet-length rationale: Speaking of torn ACLs, Klay Thompson is about due to return from his (suffered in Game 6 of the 2019-20 Finals). The Warriors should be "back" in some form, but they're older now. 48 wins is a lot for a team that will focus on health and maybe make a trade or two, so I'm taking the slight under.
5. Dallas Mavericks – 50 wins (OVER 48.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: Feels crazy to pick this team to win 50 just because they added Reggie Bullock but...that's what I'm going to do here. Luka is the rising tide that lifts all boats it seems. A bounce-back year for Porzingis could seal it even further. Slight over.
4. Los Angeles Lakers – 52 wins (under 53.5, -110) - 1 Unit *
Tweet-length rationale: The Lakers - even with try-hard Westbrook on the roster - will be trying to make it to the playoffs healthy as a top 4 seed. I think they'll do it, but I also believe 3 other teams in the West will win more games, so I'm taking a slight under to make my math work.
3. Los Angeles Clippers – 53 wins (OVER 45.5, -110) - 5 Units *****
Tweet-length rationale: This is the bet I feel best about. They won 47 games in a 72-game season and only need to win 46 out of 82 for this bet to hit. Kawhi likely won't be back 'til late, if at all, but they're a strong/experienced enough regular season roster to win without him...and will be hungry to jockey for playoff position upon his return.
2. Phoenix Suns – 55 wins (OVER 50.5, -122) - 4 Units ****
Tweet-length rationale: The darling of last season that blew a 2-0 Finals lead should be back strong & ready, led by Chris Paul but will all the young talent a year better/wiser/seasoned. Same logic as the Clippers pick: they hit this number with 10 less games last year...and they don't even have big injury concerns.
1. Utah Jazz – 58 wins (OVER 53.5, -110) - 4 Units ****
Tweet-length rationale: With the Bucks finally winning, the Jazz are the new Bucks in that they are BUILT for the regular season but flame out in the playoffs. It may be a few years/players until they figure out something more than that, but until proven otherwise, I'll gladly take their over and block anybody who tries to send me made-up stats about the effects of Rudy Gobert's defense on the pandemic economy.
So that’s it! Those are my picks. Now all that’s left is for the 2021-22 season to get underway. Let’s go Sixers, baby!
