Positional storylines: How do you follow the best Super Bowl run ever?

Originally Posted: July 9, 2018by Eric Marturano

On February 4, 2018, the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl. They beat the New England Patriots 41-33 in one of the greatest games ever played, doing so with backup quarterback Nick Foles at the helm. Several records were set during Super Bowl LII, including most yards gained in an NFL game by both teams combined (1,151 in total), the fewest punts from both teams in a Super Bowl (only 1), and the most points scored in a Super Bowl by the losing team (33). Culminating in the first NFL championship since 1960 and first ever Super Bowl win, the 2017-2018 Super Bowl run will go down as one of the best and most memorable runs in league history.

The question the team asks itself is one that is on the minds of many fans these days…how do you follow THAT?

How do you follow a 13-3 regular season with a +162 Points For/Points Against differential (good for 1st in the league, alongside the inferior New England Patriots who also finished the season at 13-3 and +162)?

How do you follow a 38-7 thrashing of a Vikings team that was, until then, widely considered the best defense in the league?

How do you follow this sequence??:

FOLES: “You want Philly Philly?”
*dramatic pause, knowing look, head nod*
PEDERSON: “Yea, let’s do it”

 This is uncharted territory for all of us. While I can’t predict exactly what lies ahead, here are some educated guesses on some of the storylines that will drive the Eagles – for better, or worse – this season at each position:

QB: Carson Wentz, the Comeback Kid….or Nick Foles, Football Rocky?Front and center this season will be the dynamic between QB Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to their first ever Super Bowl win, and QB Carson Wentz, who very well could have won MVP last season had he not gone down against the Rams in Week 14. Wentz is widely considered the more talented player and the future of the franchise. However, if he isn’t able to start the season and Foles is able to sustain the incredible success he had in the playoffs, Doug Pederson might find himself in a bit of a bind when deciding how to eventually shift the team back into Wentz’s hands. On the flip side, if Wentz struggles early on, how will the team and city respond knowing they have a Super Bowl MVP from just one season ago sitting on the bench? I would be more worried about this, but given the collective strength of character and leadership of Pederson, Wentz, and Foles, I’m confident they’ll be able to navigate the challenges of the QB position this season.

RB: Ajayi, Clement, and the Return of Darren Sproles

The Eagles lost their leading rusher in the departure of LeGarrette Blount but will arguably be even stronger, providing the lion’s share of the rushing attempts to Jay Ajayiwho averaged a very productive5.8 yards/carry on 70 attempts after being traded to the Eagles last season. At 25 years old, look for a breakout season from Ajayi. Corey Clement also came on strong as a change of pace from the bruising Ajayi/Blount and looks to continue to be a great 2nd option. Perhaps most exciting, though, is the return of Darren Sproles. At age 35 and coming back from both a torn ACL and a fractured right arm, the 5’6″ speedster adds another dimension to Pederson’s offense.

WR/TE: Jeffery, Ertz, Agholor, and…?
A huge storyline from last season was the improvement of WR Nelson Agholor. After a lackluster 2016, Agholor was a key piece of the passing attack in 2017, dropping less balls and leading the team in yards-after-the-catch. TE Zach Ertz (Pro Bowl) and WR Alshon Jeffery had great seasons as well and the trio of Jeffery, Ertz, and Agholor combined for 25 of the Eagles’ 38 receiving TDs (9, 8 , and 8, respectively). After losing TE Trey Burton (5 TDs in 2017) to a lucrative deal with the Chicago Bears and WR Torrey Smith (2 TDs), the Eagles look to 2nd round pick TE Dallas Goedert and WR Mike Wallace to pick up the slack. Look for RBs Clement and Sproles to contribute as threats in the passing game as well.

OL: Our Boys are Back in TownWhile C Jason Kelce holds the lasting image and final word for our 2017-2018 Eagles offensive line, the whole unit was one of the best in league last year and should return at full-strength. Most importantly, veteran and locker room leader LT Jason Peters will be back in the fold, hungry for a title he missed out on, taking the place of Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who provided solid depth in his absence. Pro Bowlers RG Brandon Brooks and RT Lane Johnson return as well, ready to crack some skulls. LG Stefen Wisniewski had an ankle injury in the Super Bowl, but should be back to full strength by the start of training camp. LG Chance Warmack will continue to provide depth for the unit as well.

DL: The Rich get RicherOne of the biggest reasons the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year was their killer defensive front. Between the return of Super Bowl heroes Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett and consistent stalwarts Fletcher Cox (Pro Bowl), Chris Long, and Timmy Jernigan, the Eagles were already poised for success. Now add in longtime greats Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata, and this front is absolutely stacked. While new Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vinny Curry and Beau Allen will be missed, the Eagles will continue to dominate on the defensive front.

LB: The return of Jordan Hicks, the loss of Mychal Kendricks, the steadiness of Nigel BradhamLinebacker is one of the only positions of concern for the Eagles entering this season, as Jordan Hicks hasn’t been the most reliable in terms of health, and the team is missing key contributor Mychal Kendricks. However, Nigel Bradham should continue to be a force, and if Hicks can stay healthy, this unit should be fine. Adding the quick Corey Nelson should help, but one injury to this unit could cause some real trouble for the Eagles’ defense.

DB: Malcolm Jenkins looks to lead a talented, competitive groupPro Bowl strong safety and Philadelphia socialite Malcolm Jenkins and free safety Rodney McLeod provide a reliable backbone for an interesting group of corners: Jalen Mills struggled at times during the season but performed well in the playoffs, Ronald Darby will be in a contract year, and Sidney Jones is looking to prove himself after missing most of last year with an Achilles injury. The Eagles also drafted Avonte Maddox and will have Rasul Douglas vying for time. I’m intrigued to see how this group shakes out in training camp and the early stages of the season, as each player has some ups and down.

Special Teams: The Loss of Donnie JonesWhile the Eagles will be thrilled to have Darren Sproles returning kicks again, losing longtime punter Donnie Jones presents an odd challenge for an otherwise strong special teams unit. Currently, the punter looks to be Australian footballer Cameron Johnston. While the Eagles have expressed confidence in Johnston, he will have a beloved boot to fill in Jones.

“Hungry dogs run faster”
The hunger of otherwise key contributors who were in some ways “left out” of last season’s ultimate Super Bowl run (Wentz, Peters, Hicks, Sproles, etc.) is what I will be watching closely as a key indicator of where the team heads this season. As Jason Kelce so eloquently and bombastically put it, “Hungry dogs run faster”  – and hunger will need to be the focus of the Eagles as they look to defend the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl win.

Views from 116: “Processing” Off-the-court Ticketing Strategies

Originally Posted: July 5, 2018
by Eric Marturano

Believe it or not, “The Process” hasn’t only happened on the court these last few years in Philadelphia: the Sixers are also revolutionizing the sports ticketing market by leveraging analytics off the court to grow and retain their season ticket base. This past March, Braden Moore, Director of Analytics & Insights for the 76ers and New Jersey Devils, spoke about it at the 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The process through which CEO Scott O’Neil has been able to efficiently separate the good people of the Delaware Valley from their wallets is actually quite fascinating.

In 2013, when Braden began his role as Director of Analytics & Insights with the Philadelphia 76ers, there were many challenges. Chief among them were a customer base of only ~3,500 season ticket members and extremely disorganized business data. Like the team on the court around that time, Braden and the rest of team made it their mission to use data to inform how to make the best possible off the court decisions moving forward. The results they’ve seen since taking on this data-driven mindset on the business side have been promising: in 2015, 2016, and 2017, the Sixers led the league in new full season-ticket member sales. They’ve also consistently placed in the Top 10 across the league for renewal rates. These two patterns combined took the Sixers from 28th in 2013 in the NBA for Total Member Base all the way to 2nd in 2017. This past season, the Sixers ranked 3rd in attendance. Braden attributes this success not only to a data-driven mindset, but a true “dialogue” about how to use the data for real takeaways and actionable results. In practice, he outlines this process as a cycle of proper data collection and integration, improved models, and sales rep adoption/buy-in.

Data Warehouses and Data Arenas

76ers Data Collection, Analysis, and Utilization Process (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

The powerful data collection and integration systems offered by Kraft Analytic Group (KAGR) data warehousing allows the Sixers analytics team to focus their brain-power exclusively on improving their quantitative models and outputs. Additionally, the team engages in a qualitative dialogue to help sales reps better understand the “why” behind the direction they receive from the team. These discussions also help sanity check the feasibility of proposed strategies. Because the analytics team relies on the reps to accurately input countless bits of customer information into their Customer Relationship Management (CRM) tool, Braden and team find it crucial to data integrity for the reps to fully understand their key role in the process at-large. In this cyclical model, better data breeds better tools and models, which in turn breeds improved efficiencies for the reps and better rep data collection.

Particularly important to this cycle has been the Sixers analytics teams’ close partnership with KAGR data warehousing. Every piece of customer information that is collected flows through the KAGR data warehousing and to the Sixers analytics team and then back to the reps, completing a 360 degree view of the customer and constantly improved account service. For example, there is a workflow notification to the reps that is triggered when a season ticket member misses three games in a row which notifies the reps to call and find out why and how they can help (i.e., sell tickets to missed games to the season ticket member can either recoup losses or gain a profit). Because I go to nearly every game, I’ve never had to worry about such call, but I’ve certainly seen this data put to use in other ways from the season-ticket holding side (court access, birthday/anniversary gifts, deals I might be interested in, etc.). All of these actions are taken with the goal of increasing my likelihood to renew my season tickets and it starts with data analysis.

Retention is the name of the game

76ers & KAGR Workflow (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

Regarding season ticket member retention in the aggregate, this framework can be quite powerful towards enabling responsiveness from the organization. Using relative importance output logistic regressions from their large data sets, the Sixers were able to identify key variables and metrics that the reps could put into action on either passively (i.e., how many games that members go to) or actively (i.e., how many times the rep calls, emails, or in-game visits their member). This is strategically important for the organization because it takes all typically confusing logistic regression jargon, equations, and quantitative speak and boils it down to actionable behavior for the sales rep. Rather than merely writing a recipe for success, the Sixers actually teach their employees how to cook the meal.

Factors Contributing to Season Ticket Member Retention (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

In a short example, to address a season ticket holder like Greg, who is attending 33% of games, if a sales rep knows they only need to convince Greg to attend 41% of games (in reality, just 2-3 more) in order to drastically increase his renewal likelihood (from 60% likelihood to renew at 33% attendance to 81% likelihood to renew at 41% attendance), then they will be properly motivated to follow-up with Greg on no-cost perks (such as on-court pregame pictures for a game that is happening anyway).

Turning insights into actions for “Greg” (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

In this way, the rep is able to utilize data insights to meet or exceed their sales goals. The Sixers’ analytics team is able to track this information housed by KAGR over time and create interfaces for their reps to easily monitor ticket members that they’re responsible for on quick-click dashboards.

Season ticket monitoring by seat (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

The analytics team also uses data on the reps logging behavior themselves to motivate them to maintain data integrity. On the first day of hiring, reps shown that told they can increase the number of sales (wins) they have by up to 30% by logging information correctly. More clean data means more money for the rep’s pocket, more money for the organization, and more satisfied ticket holder. Everybody wins.

Reinforcing the “So What”

Motivational strategy for sales reps (MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2018, Braden Moore)

This data-driven mindset off the court has created incredible results for the Sixers organization. As they move forward and build off of this data into models that are currently in development (i.e., customer decision journey models), they’re well positioned to continue to generate and retain season ticket sales. Throughout the dregs of “The Process”, the Sixers had a saying of being “50-win ready” around the organization and believe that this model will help them sustain organizational success off the court as the team on the court continues to improve. After a 52-30 finish to the 2017-2018 season and first round playoff series win, the Sixers will look to meet the challenges of growing expectations and increased ticket demands – great problems to have if properly prepared.

Eric Marturano is a Sixers season ticket holder who works in market research analytics. Eric has attended the last four MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conferences.